With 11,000 Baby Boomers turning 65 every day, senior leaders and PMs are retiring faster than firms can backfill them. Mid-level professionals move up to cover those gaps, and the vacancy that opens below them, at the SSr and Sr drafter, BIM modeler, and coordinator level, is the one nobody can fill. Enrollment in US engineering programs has dropped more than 4% since 2019. The pipeline isn't there.
- The data from the AEC industry's own research confirms this (Stambaugh Ness, AEC Industry Outlook):
- 68% of firms flag retention of existing staff as an active concern, and six of the top ten challenges they report are workforce-related
- Average employee tenure has dropped from 7.1 years (2012) to 4.9 years today, a decline of more than 30%
- Some firms report taking over two years to fill open positions
That's not a hiring problem. That's a structural gap, and it's not going to reverse in the near term.